With respect to the other teams in the Pac-10 conference, the King isn’t quite dead…..not yet anyway.
Another season and what could be another USC Pac-10 championship and BCS berth. Yeah, I know, I know, they replace Matt Leinart, Reggie Bush and LenDale White, their offensive line isn’t as good as it once was, nor is their defense.
But, they have one thing that other Pac-10 schools do not. Pete Carroll. He is the master motivator, he gets the best from his players time after time and more importantly, he loves his job.
So Cal, UCLA, Washington, and the rest of you left coasters who think this is your year, ehhhh you might clip them but the title is staying where it’s been the last handful of years.
A look at the 2006 Pac-10 and how we here at ETOS see it going.
1.USC (12-1, Pete Carroll 54-10): Sure they lose two Heisman trophy winners, nearly 7,000 yards of offense and 68 touchdowns last season alone, but that doesn’t mean the cupboard is totally bare out in SoCal.
Carroll will have to break in a new quarterback, at least right now that job falls to John David Booty. At running back, the Trojans will likely turn to Chauncey Washington, a 6-1, 205-pound, who must remain eligible to play if he wants the job. Hershell Dennis tore his ACL in the spring and will miss the entire 2006 season, he was the third of that stellar class that included Bush and White that starred three seasons ago when the Trojans beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
If Booty cannot get the job done (and some national writers are beginning to wonder if he can), Mark Sanchez might the answer…..if he can’t get it done, well then it’s up to Michael McDonald (Right, I know, who?).
But what the Trojans lack in the backfield, they make up for out on the flanks and in the slot. A DEEP, veeeeeeeeery DEEP receiving corps means whomever is taking snaps will likely put up above average numbers but because he will be aided by the likes of Dewayne Jarrett, Steve Smith, Patrick Turner, Chris McFoy and true freshman Vidal Hazelton (if he gets his $h!t squared away before the season kicks.) Also tight end Fred Davis returns.
Plus, Carroll went out and got the “typical” USC receiver in his recruiting class, 6-5, 215-pound David Asburry, who along with Jamere Holland, Hazelton and Travon Patterson make up the deepest crop of incoming freshman receivers in America. Scary if any of the quarterbacks can pan out this season.
The offensive line returns just two full-time starters (Sam Baker and Ryan Kalil), but Kyle Williams, Jeff Byers and Chilo Rachel are all 300-pounders that are young in some cases (Byers and Rachel are both just sophomores).
Defensively, the Trojans will be better than a lot of people think, with the return of all three starting linebackers, two along the defensive line and also the return of strong safety Dallas Sartz. Brandon Ting also returns in the secondary which could be aided by a deep recruiting class.
The schedule will tell Carroll and his staff a lot in the early going as the Trojans travel to Arkansas (think they want revenge for that 70-17 thrashing last year in SoCal?), then they host Big 12 upstart Nebraska and then a showdown with potential Pac-10 sleeper Arizona. Plus they have to go back-to-back-to-back with California, Notre Dame and UCLA at the end of the season.
Prediction: Look, despite the losses they are the top of the conference until further notice. I think they will struggle early, maybe even lose to Arizona but if everything clicks, and the youth comes through, look out at the end of the season. They will defeat a one-loss Notre Dame team at the end of the year and UCLA is down. The Cal game could, one way or another, determine the conference championship.
Trojans will win 9 for sure and I think can go 10-2, maybe 11-1 if they beat Cal. If 11-1 is it, they are going back, likely, to the Rose Bowl….heck, maybe even for a rematch against Texas.
T2. Arizona (3-8, Mike Stoops, 6-16): Yeah they were 3-8, but look closely and you see 17 starters return from last season. And all nine that return on defense are all underclassmen. That means this team is ready to step up and possibly challenge for the conference title already.
I didn’t want to put them ahead of Cal, so hence the tied-for-second ranking. This team didn’t improved record wise from 2004 to 2005, but the fact that the youth on this team has so much potential it’s impossible to not notice this team.
Quarterback Willie Tuitama should improve on a season in which he completed 58-percent of his passes for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns as a true freshman last season. He will miss the services of running back ike Bell, but Chris Henry has potential for a 1,000-yard season.
Tuitama also has all three of his starting WRs returning, including the explosive Michael Thomas who averaged almost 15-yards a catch last season and caught 52 passes. Anthony Johnson will also help out Tuitama as will the lone senior of the trio, Syndric Steptoe.
The offensive line will start three seniors and two freshmen, making it an interesting mix of youth and experience.
Now defensively, this is where the Wildcats may separate themselves from the rest of the Pac-10 group. Three defensive linemen return along the front, including ends Marcus Smith and Jonathan Turner.
The linebacking corps is pretty sick too, returning all three starters. Junior corners Wilrey Fontenot and Antonie Carson anchor the secondary.
Prediction: So jumping from 3-8 to say 8-4 may be a stretch, but this team has real potential to do just that. 7-5 seems more likely, but I will go on the limb and say 9-3, and Stoops gets Coach of the Year honors. They should beat BYU in the opener but in week two, a trip to LSU could spell trouble. They get the chance to prep against Stephen F. Austin before hosting USC in the early season showdown in the conference. Cal comes calling on Homecoming in November, by that point this team may have a ton of momentum.
T2. California (8-4, Jeff Tedford, 33-17): 15 starters return from a team that started 5-0 last year before crashing to UCLA and ending the regular season 2-4 before knocking off BYU in the postseason.
And those 15 starters are reason for excitement, with the likes of Marshawn Lynch, a 1,246-10 TD running back a season ago. He is a legit Heisman candidate and can run circles around and through opposing defenses.
DeSean Jackson and Robert Jordan are the anchors at the WR position. But where this team runs into problems is blocking for Lynch. They must replace all but two offensive linemen. Lynch also has to become more versatile and catch more than 13 passes this coming season.
Defensively, they do return eight starters, including leading tackler, and middle linebacker Desmond Bishop who had 89 tackles last season, but no sacks. But corners return too, meaning teams that are pass happy might run into some trouble throwing against this team.
Here’s the biggest problem with liking the Bears to do anything more than third place in this conference (Especially with upstart Arizona here.) Their schedule is a total nightmare. Week one they are at Tennessee, then must host Minnesota, a tricky Minnesota team. Plus there are tricky games against Arizona St and Oregon, and those are all before they play Arizona and USC. Ouch.
Prediction: They are good enough now to be a preseason second place, but in the long run, there are too many ifs on the offensive line and Lynch could see his numbers drop because they need to spread the ball out more (which is a mistake. Lynch should be a 25 carry a game guy.) Their schedule worries me, so I think they drop back a little bit and finish anywhere from third to fourth in this conference. Call it 7-5 and another minor bowl against a stiff opponent.
T2. Oregon (10-2, Mike Bellotti, 90-42): See a pattern developing here? This conference is log jammed at the top. In fact all four of the previous teams listed have a legit chance to win this conference and I haven’t even gotten to Arizona State yet.
So, the Ducks lose Kellen Clemens, no big deal. Dennis Dixon threw for 777 yards in limited duty last season in Clemens’ shadow. Running back Jonathan Stewart scored six touchdowns in limited duty and Dixon has the threats at WR he will need in order to make a smooth transition as the full time starter.
If Dixon can’t get it done, Brady Leaf is there to pick up the pieces.
Last year, the Ducks made it a point to outscore everyone by a 29.3-20.8 advantage and with six starters back on defense this year, it appears that some pressure could be taken off the offense, at least on paper.
Plus the gap between USC and Oregon is smaller and smaller as last season the Ducks were embarrassed 45-13 by USC. That could change this season.
Much like California, the problem here is that the Ducks schedule is totally brutal. They open with conference foe Stanford, then play one of the toughest non-cons anyone could schedule in Fresno State, then they host Oklahoma.
After a bye, it gets no easier, with back-to-back trips to Arizona State and Cal. The bottom half of the schedule includes a trip to Los Angeles for USC, they host Arizona and then the Civil War with Oregon State. Y-I-K-E-S.
Prediction: It’s not all bad and they will win at least three of those “tough” games, likely against Fresno, Az. State and probably with Oregon State. After that it’s anyones guess, but again this conference is so balanced and there is no clear cut factor keeping the top spot from any of these teams.
10-2, no way Jose, anywhere from 6-8 wins is more acceptable.
5. Arizona State (7-5, Dirk Koetter, 59-38): There is definitely some reasons for optimism in Tempe with the duo of quarterback Sam Keller and WR Rudy Burgess leading the way offensively. However, the optimism stops there.
Limited experience on defense is going to hurt this team and hurt them bad especially with tough conference games early in the season. They aren’t going to be able to outscore everyone all season long, and how will they man up and stop Marshawn Lynch or the receiving corps at USC?
This is where the drop off in conference starts.
Prediction: 7-5 last year wasn’t awful, but the fact that their defense gave up 25.3 ppg last season, while the Sun Devils averaged 26.1 means that a defense that couldn’t stop anyone last year will have an even tougher time with just four starters back this year. Who knows, maybe a total revamped defense isn’t a bad thing.
As stated above, this is where the drop off in conference starts. This team would be lucky to go .500, and they do have talent to score and move the ball, but without defensive help ASAP, 5-7 maybe even 4-8 looks more likely.
The rest of the bunch should shake up like this.
6. Oregon State (5-6, Mike Riley, 28-30): Along with Arizona, this could be a surprising team with 16 starters back. There are still some questions about how they can squeeze into that upper tier of the conference so that’s why we have to rank them low to start.
Prediction: Veeeeeeeery dangerous team if it all clicks and after going through the non-con 3-0 they have a chance to shake up the conference on 9/30 when they play Cal.
This team could win eight. We’re not shocked if they do.
7. Stanford (5-6, Walt Harris, 57-50): Like OSU, they have 16 coming back, including 10 (TEN!) on offense.
Prediction: I have a feeling I will look back on these predictions and cry at the end of the year when Oregon State and Stanford are both 1-2 in the conference. The Cardinal goes bowling for the first time since 2001.
8. UCLA (10-2, Karl Dorrell, 22-15): They take the biggest fall after placing second last year.
9. Washington (2-9, Ty Willingham, 67-60-1): This team is going nowhere, not even with eight starters on defense returning. When are people going to get it in their heads that Ty Willingham CANNOT coach???
Go ahead Ty, I dare you to make me eat crow.
10. Washington State (4-7, Bill Doba, 19-16): Someone has to finish 10th, don’t they?